Tko je preživio uništavanje industrije, spreman je za svjetsko tržište
Rast izvoza i proizvodnja dvije su kapi optimizma u sjeni investicijskog smeća
ako uvoditi čitatelje u publikaciju 500 najboljih pišući tekst o tome – iz smeća? Naime, objavljivanje popisa kompanija koje su stvorile najviše nove vrijednosti u prošloj godini zasjenjen je viješću da nam je kreditna agencija Fitch snizila rejting na razinu ‘smeće’ (‘BB+’ – neinvesticijski, tj. špekulativni rejting). Na početku mandata ova je vlada grčevito pokušavala zadržati kreditni rejting, a sad kao da smo već oguglali na loše vijesti.
Dešperacija se uvukla u gospodarstvo. To se osjeti u svakodnevnim razgovorima s poduzetnicima, a i većina pokazatelja iz ove publikacije navodi na rezignaciju. No umjesto da gledamo u času koja je gotovo prazna, pokušajmo tumačiti da u njoj ipak ima koja kap.
Izvoz je svakako ta kap koja može donijeti rast. Za razliku od prethodne godine, kad je izvoz 500 najboljih pao za 651 milijun eura, ove je godine porastao za čak 955 milijuna. Nažalost, to nije plod izvozne orijentacije, nego isključivo posljedica debakla domaćeg tržišta. Stoga su poduzetnici u krajnjoj nuždi krenuli ‘trbuhom za kruhom’, preko granice. I, sudeći prema rezultatima, izvoz se ipak isplati. Istini za volju, država ga nije imala rezona poticati jer je donedavno najlakše punila proračun od uvoznog PDV-a i carina. No na Linićevu kratkoročnu žalost, a na dugoročnu sreću za zdrav razum i hrvatsko gospodarstvo, od 1. srpnja i država ima više razloga da potiče izvoznike. U proračunu se već osjeća carinski manjak s jedinstvenog tržišta Europske unije, a i PDV se nerijetko uplaćuje negdje drugdje. Zato bi država trebala napokon početi tetošiti izvoznike, jer je domaći tržište već ostalo iscijenjeno poput suhe drenovine.
Druga kap optimizma u gotovo praznoj časi je industrija. Unatoč svemu, zameci proizvodnje ipak su ostali živi. A tko je preživio sveobuhvatnu akciju upropaštavanja industrije i rasprodaju nekretnina ispražnjenih i napuštenih tvornica, taj je spreman i za okrutno svjetsko tržište.
Nažalost, to nije teza nekog ekonomskog stručnjaka. Stvar je mnogo gora, jer je došla iz pera majstora horora Stephena Kinga. Tek toliko da znamo u koji žanr nas vodi tvrdoglavljenje s ‘lex Perkovića’ dok Hrvatskoj trebaju hitni ‘lex junkovi’.
—\n\nIncrease in exports and production are two rays of optimism in the shadow of investment junk\n\nHow does one write an introduction to a publication on the best 500, writing a text on it – from the junk? Publishing the list of companies which earned the highest added value in the last year is clouded by news of the Fitch rating agency reducing our rating to the level of ‘junk’ (‘BB+’ – non-investment, i.e. speculative rating). In the beginning of its term in office, this government tried desperately to maintain the credit rating, but now we seem to have grown numb to bad news. Desperation has found its way into the economy. This can be felt in everyday conversation with entrepreneurs, and most indicators in this publication point to resignation.\n\nYet, instead of looking at a glass which is almost totally empty, let’s still try to see some drops in it. Export is by all means the drop which could lead to growth. As opposed to the year before, when exports of the best 500 fell by EUR 651 million, this year they rose by as much as 955 million. Unfortunately, this is not a consequence of orientation towards exports, but only of the total failure of the domestic market. Thus, in their pressing need, entrepreneurs started looking abroad for their daily bread. And if we are to trust the results, exports do pay off. To be truthful, the state had no reason to encourage it, as until recently import VAT and customs were the easiest way to fill the budget. But much to Linić’s short-term sorrow, and to the delight of the common sense and the Croatian economy, since 1 July the state has every reason to encourage exporters. The lack of customs from the common EU market is making itself felt in the budget, and VAT is not rarely paid somewhere else. This is why the state should finally start pampering the exporters, as the domestic market has already been drained out and left dry as bone. The second drop of optimism in the almost empty glass is industry. Despite everything, the seeds of industry have stayed alive. And those who survived the comprehensive destruction of industry and selling-off of the real estate of emptied and left factories, is ready for the cruel global market.\n\nOf course, the causes for this situation are to be found in past governments. ‘At that time’ we were still shyly run into debt as compared to HDZ (and even SDP in one term). For years they were ‘selling the future’. And what is the price of selling the future? You can never leave the past behind!\n\nUnfortunately, this is not a thesis of an economic expert. The situation is much worse, as it came from the quill of the master of horror, Stephen King. Just so we know which genre pigheadedness with ‘Lex Perković’ leads us to, while what Croatia needs are urgent ‘Lex Junks’. \n\n—\n\nLider // www.liderpress.hr\n\n9/23/13 4:42 PM\n\n007 UVODNIK cs6.indd 7\n
