GLOSSARY

We love the future, but we hate uncertainty, and people will do anything they can to reduce uncertainty. Paul Saffo, a technology forecaster.

We are all witnesses that many a forecast about the ‘brave new world’ scheduled for the 21st century simply did not come true – both predictions of doom and unprecedented advancements alike. We do not (yet!) live in the world of the ‘day after’ or wars over drinking water, nor do we fly around in cars, dwell in undersea cities or are teleported to work in paperless offices. However, a lot of the previously unthinkable is here: despite a deeply ingrained scepticism, telecommuting and e-commerce are taking off everywhere.

In business, experts try to envisage both what will happen and how, in order to turn any potential obstacle into a profit-making opportunity. They also take into account the possibility of things unexpectedly going right, such as the US technology boom and the collapse of Communism in Eastern Europe in the 1990s. In these two cases forecasters were blamed for the missed opportunities and loss of revenue. There is also a market for analyses that look further into the future and offer pie-in-the-sky ideas that might eventually become everyday phenomena.

The ubiquitous Internet once used to be just somebody’s wacky idea. On the other hand, it might be just wishful thinking that many of your belongings should soon have embedded information which could, for instance, enable our various pieces of clothing to communicate with each other.

Experts who make a living out of anticipating the future often hold a degree in Futures Studies, Foresight, or Futurology, described as ‘the science, art and practice of predicting possible, probable, and preferable futures and the worldviews and myths that underlie them’. They employ various scientific methods such as mathematic modelling and statistics in developing scenarios of different futures. The reason they use the plural form is to reflect the notion that their scenarios are just one of many alternatives. At the same time, they show awareness of limitations inherent in predicting something with absolute certainty.

Foresight professionals often take into account the effect of so called wildcards, which are low probability but high impact events (positive or negative). One of beauties of life has always been the fact that it defies predictions and is full of surprises. However, it is human nature to try to minimise the risk of uncertainty and therefore many corporations use futurists as part of their risk management strategy.

What does the future hold for ordinary people? More challenges in every aspect of our lives and the necessity of life-long learning are our safest bets. And if you are wondering whether your job will still exist in a few years’ time or what investments to make, you might be advised to stay away from bookstores, record stores, newspapers and camera film manufacturing – their chances of survival seem to be rather low.